Look Ahead to the Future of Online Health
Monday, October 12, 2009
| Mark Bard
About the Author: Mark Bard is the President of Manhattan Research.
Mark is also a Keynote Speaker at our 2009 Connected Health Symposium, Oct 21-22. He is speaking on Day 1 of the event at 4:35pm, and will be presenting Analyzing Digital Health by the Numbers: Five Years of Market Trends - and What They Mean for the Next Five.
As a research firm, we are often asked by our clients … what will the online health market look like in five years? While it is an interesting exercise to run through all of the possible scenarios that may become reality in the realm of connectivity and online condition management, the harsh dividing line between what is possible and what is likely quickly becomes apparent very fast. Innovation, ideas, and new businesses are built on the premise that risk will be rewarded with economic return. The digital health space is no different in that just because something seems like a great idea, there is no guarantee it will ever see the light of day if there is no revenue stream to support it. It must be recognized that the ability to deliver innovation to the ones that need it the most in society will be funded and made possible by business models that deliver value to a sponsor or end user willing to pay for the benefit of the services or tools utilized. Markets define and deliver sustainable change.
For example, much of the online health growth over the past five years – from 90 million US adults in 2004 to approximately 160 million US adults online for health information in 2009, according to Manhattan Research – has been driven by the desire to access product and treatment information online. Although some of that information is courtesy of the government (such as NIH and CDC), it can be argued the bulk of the content creation and innovation has been driven by way of ad revenue models enabling commercial sponsors to engage an audience at the point of decision – much better than a shotgun approach of using traditional print advertising or television campaigns to reach patients. The benefit of bringing these sponsors to the table has resulted in the creation and deployment of tools that deliver value to all 160 million online health information seekers, not just the smaller target of interest to the advertisers or commercial sponsors. In effect, anyone with access to the Internet now has access to resources comparable to what a typical physician may be accessing to make clinical decisions in their own practice. The net benefit to the community at large is immense and sets the stage as we continue the move from health content online to a world focused on facilitating and enabling connectivity and communication to support care linking patients, physicians, and payers.
So what can we expect the world of online health to look like in 2014? One of the largest shifts playing out in the research we have conducted over the past seven years is the rapidly growing segment of consumers utilizing the Internet to support the care process. In other words, while the vast majority of consumers five years ago went to the Internet in response to diagnosis, the majority of consumers in 2009 now report they are using the Internet in different ways to help them manage conditions or to continue their learning after they leave the physician office. This shift from content-based reactive Internet adoption in sporadic “bites” is giving way to a system in which patients view the Internet as a complement to the care being delivered by their personal physician – which will remain the foundation of their healthcare delivery system. Getting to the future of connected health will not come easy – or without a price tag. But ultimately the second wave, like the first, will benefit a much larger audience of patients over time as models diffuse, pricing points drop, and companies are able to spread their investment over a much larger and much more active user base of online health consumers.